Research notes / Articles
Ideas and working notes on quantitative research, data, and building systems for better decisions.
I tested more than three decades of VIX forecasts against what the S&P 500 actually did. The VIX predicts volatility, overstates the usual move, and offers almost no directional edge.
Read articleOpen-weight AI can lower model costs while leaving buyers dependent on concentrated compute and deployment infrastructure.
Read articleAlpha without perfect forecasts gets very real when the market is China, Asia, policy risk, FX risk, and supply-chain chess.
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